Relationship between global warming and development

[subodh kumar suman]

 

Relationship between global warming and development                          

Introduction: -

The global warming is continuous increasing or rising in the temperature due to high concentration of greenhouse gases. High concentrations of so-called ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere create a ‘heat-absorbing blanket’ that raises the temperature at the surface of the earth above what it would otherwise be. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) defines greenhouse gases as ‘those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation’. The relevant gases include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) hydro fluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. The most important greenhouse gas is water vapor.

Global warming is closely related with development. Because now a day there is so many developmental issues are affected due to global warming. Main developmental issue which is mainly affected by global warming is food insecurity, due to decrease in the agricultural production, increase in health related problem, increase in natural calamities etc.

Agriculture and allied sectors are highly sensitive to global warming. It will also affect livelihoods and human well-being. Consequently, the interaction between agricultural performance and weather, which has been an important area of research since the last few decades, has gained momentum due to the awareness of the adverse effects of climate change and global worming on agriculture and livelihood. In the context of developing nations such as India, where agriculture continues to support the livelihoods of more than two-thirds of the population, a study of the nature and impact of climate change on agriculture and people’s livelihoods assumes importance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Causes of global warming: -

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide hold heat in the atmosphere creating a greenhouse effect and keep the earth warm enough to sustain life. Enhanced greenhouse effect or the abnormal increase of ‘greenhouse gases’ due to human activities like burning of solid waste, wood, fossil fuels like oil, natural gas and coal, deforestation and the release of hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) from industrial processes cause more than normal heat to be trapped in the atmosphere and cause global warming.

Impact of global warming on development: -

There are following impacts of global warming which have direct impacts on development and developmental issues: -

Extreme heat: -              

Now a day raising the temperature is major problem for world. So many species of flora and fauna are extinct due to imbalance of the natural temperature. Each and every year world’s temperature is going up. High temperatures raise the levels of ozone and other pollutants in the air that exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Urban air pollution causes about 1.2 million deaths every year. Extreme heat causes several diseases also. Extreme is problematic of the world.

Natural disasters and variable rainfall patterns: -

Natural disaster and fluctuation in rainfall patterns is also an impact of global warming. Globally, the number of reported weather-related natural disasters has more than tripled since the 1960s. Every year, these disasters result in over 60 000 deaths, mainly in developing countries.

Increasing sea levels and increasingly extreme weather events is a more problematic thing for the world.  More than half of the world's population lives within 60 km of the sea. People may be forced to move, which in turn heightens the risk of a range of health effects, from mental disorders to communicable diseases. Now days more natural calamities are more often rather than earlier days. There are some examples like tsunami, Katrina, earth quack, draught and cyclones which affects more to community. From these natural disaster people losses their assets like house, land, crop, livelihood etc.

Second things is rainfall patterns, rainfall pattern is also change due to the global warming. Now monsoon is in late June-July while earlier its comes in last week of May to first week of June. Due to the variation of rainfall the pattern of agriculture is also changed. Now paddy and wheat’s production is changed. Other crops are also very badly affected by the change in rainfall pattern.  Sevier draught condition is also coming very often. Due to draught farmers are not capable to irrigate their land resulting majority of crops are affected more due to less avaibility of water.

Rising temperatures and variable rainfall pattern are likely to decrease the production of staple foods in many of the poorest regions – by up to 50% by 2020 in some African countries. This will increase the prevalence of malnutrition and under nutrition, which currently cause 3.5 million deaths every year.

Floods are also increasingly by the intensity and frequency. More floods, frequent droughts and forest fires, decrease in agricultural and aquaculture productivity, displacement of coastal dwellers by sea level rise and intense tropical cyclones, and the degradation of mangroves may be some of the likely consequences of climate change and global warming in Asia.

 

Food insecurity: -

 Food insecurity is the major concern for the world in today’s contexts. Food insecurity cause hunger at the world level. The main reason of food insecurity is continuous decreasing production of yield. In India, the projected impact of global warming on agriculture varies across regions because India has immense climatic/geographic diversity. In the arid regions, where the agricultural crops face the heat stress, even small changes in temperature (increase) will have a devastating effect (decline) on agricultural production. However, the same rate of increase in temperature in cooler places such as near the Himalayas could have a positive effect on agricultural production (World Bank, 2009).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table A: Projected Impact of global warming on Selected Crops in India

(Using Ricardian Model)

Study	Temperature	Change % Change (Net Agricultural Revenue per ha.)
Sanghi, Mendelsohn and Dinar, 1998	2oC	-3 to -6
Kumar and Parikh, 1998	2oC	-7 to -9
Kumar and Parikh, 2001	2oC	-8
Kumar and Parikh, 1998	3.5oC	-20 to -26
Sanghi, Mendelsohn and Dinar, 1998	3.5oC	-3 to -8

Source: World Bank (2009)

 

Table gives the details of the results obtained by various scholars using the Ricardian approach. This approach estimates the impact of climate change and global warming on agricultural land value. The Ricardian approach could provide valuable information on the economic effect of climate-induced agricultural changes. These studies suggest that an increase in temperature of 20 C to 3.50 C would result in a 3-26 per cent loss of net agricultural revenue.

 

Table B: Agronomic Assessment for Crops in India

 

Crop	Crop Region	Study	Scenario	Yield Change (%)	Model
Rice	Northwest	Lal et al. 1998	+2 0 C, Doubling CO2	0	CERES-Rice
Rice	Northwest	Lal et al. 1998	+2 0 C, Doubling CO2	Water Shortage -20	CERES-Rice
Wheat	Northwest	Lal et al. 1998	+30 C, Doubling CO2	0	CERES-Wheat
Soybean	Madhya Pradesh	Lal et al. 1999	+3oC, Doubling CO2 ; - 10% daily rainfall	-4 to 0	CROPGRO
Rice	Kerala	Saseendran et al, 2000	+1.5oC	-6	CERES-Rice
Rice	Parts of all India	Aggarwal and Mall, 2002*	Optimistic IPCC scenarios; +0.10 C, 416 ppm CO2; +0.40 C, 755 ppm CO2. Both at current crop management level**	+3.5 to +4.3 (2010) +13.8 to 22.3 (2070)	CERES-Rice
Rice	Parts of all India	Aggarwal and Mall, 2002*	Pessimistic IPCC scenarios; +0.30 C, 397 ppm CO2; +0.20 C, , 605 ppm CO2. Both at current crop management level**	+2.3 to +1.9 (2010) +3.6 to +9 (2070)	CERES-Rice
Rice	Parts of all India	Aggarwal and Mall, 2002*	Optimistic IPCC scenario	+5.1 to 7.4 (2010)+16.6 to +25.7 (2070)	ORYZAIN
Rice	Parts of all India	Aggarwal and Mall, 2002*	Pessimistic IPCC scenario	+2.5 to +4.1 (2010) +6.1 to +16.8 (2070)	ORYZAIN
Rice	All India Karla et al.,	2007: DEFRA Study	+10 C; No change in CO2	-5 to -8	CERES-Rice
Maize	All India	World Bank, 2006	Max. temp. +2°C; min. temp. +4°C; annual rainy days –5%; 550 ppm CO2	+3	EPIC
Groundnut All	All India	World Bank, 2006	Max. temp. +2°C; min. temp. +4°C; annual rainy days –5%; 550 ppm CO2; cumulative monsoon rainfall (Jun–Sept) –10%	0	EPIC
Sunflower	All India	World Bank, 2006	Max. temp. +2°C; min. temp. +4°C; annual rainy days –5%; 550 ppm CO2	+10	EPIC

 

Source- World Bank

 

Table B gives the detail of climate change impact on different crops as indicated by various studies. It can be observed that in general an increase of 2^oC in temperature would have a negative effect on crop production. Further, the World Bank (2009) projected that if rainfall is less, the negative impact is more pronounced. Lal et al., (1998) by using one scenario (+2^oC in temperature and doubling of CO2) predicted that there will be no change in rice production in Northwest ern India. Apart from this, the study used another scenario (+2^o C, doubling of CO2, water shortage) and projected that rice production will reduce by 20 per cent in Northwestern India. For wheat crop, the study (Lal et al. 1998) used higher scenario (+3^oC, doubling CO2) and found that there would not be any change in wheat production in Northwestern India. Lal et al (1999) noted that in Madhya Pradesh soybean production would decline by up to 4 per cent with an increase of 3^oC in temperature, doubling of CO2 and decline of 10 per cent in daily rainfall. However, in South Indian states such as Kerala, rice production is projected to decline by 6 per cent with 1.5^oC increase in temperature (Saseendran et al, 2000).

 

Impact of global warming on health: - 

Climate change poses a serious threat to human health. The World Health Organization estimates that since 2000 one million people have been killed directly or indirectly because of our warming planet.  This is not including death from air pollution, which kills 800,000 people each year and is expected to worsen with global warming.  While we must learn to adapt to the health impacts of global warming, the only preventative medicine we have is to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and stop future climate change.

                               

Global Warming and Development: -

Development is good but we have to think how? By globalization and modernization which produces more greenhouse gases in atmosphere. As we know greenhouse gases are main cause of global warming. Now day’s situation is like that each developing and developed country produce more and more energy which ultimate cause for global warming. It starts in 20^th century which is followed by 21^th century. Consumption and use of the more and more energy is not good for the flora and fauna. This is unethical for rest of the world. Like no other environmental issue, global warming threatens the well-being of both developed and developing countries. World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), energy--an issue intimately linked to global warming is prominent on the WSSD agenda. Emissions from fossil fuels are the main contributors to environmental and health problems at the local, regional, and global levels. Today, approximately 80 percent of all energy used in the world comes from burning of fossil fuels. The impacts of global warming are likely to hit developing countries hardest. In Africa, global warming threatens availability of fresh water, food security and productivity of natural resources. The solution of the global warming is use safe and eco-friendly form energy and source of energy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusion: -

Global warming is the major concern for the world. It is mainly caused by greenhouse gases. Concentration of greenhouse gases are continuously increasing so, global warming is also increasing. Now day’s different types of natural hazards, crop insecurities, and different types of health related and different environmental related problems are often due to global warming.

Development and global warming both are interlinked with each other. More industrialization cause more global warming. In present circumstances we have to use safe and eco-friendly use of energy to reduce the impact of global warming.